Brier score 0.182 over the last 30 days against 0.184 all-time (lower is better), so its calls are holding steady. 8 predictions still open.
health-monitor · first seen Oct 30 · fired 72 times
Run `robin reauth strava`: the refresh token was revoked. Open since Oct 30.
Feed returned 503; it retries on the next run · Nov 2
inbox-triage
Waiting on a reconcile (robin beliefs reconcile).
Answers queue for Robin and apply on its next sync (every 15 minutes). They feed what it believes, how it scores its own calls, and which advice lands.
A new claim contradicts what Robin believes now. Which is right?
New: Sam rides to the office three days a week now
Current: Sam rides to the office twice a week
cycling.commute
New: Sam bakes on Sunday mornings
Current: Sam bakes on Saturday afternoons
baking.schedule
Their deadline has passed. Did they come true?
Jonah returns the borrowed bike pump by Oct 26
53% sure · due Oct 26
Priya joins the Thursday bird walk
69% sure · due Oct 29
Nora books the monthly dinner by Sunday
89% sure · due Nov 1
These expire within a week. Did you act on them?
Falls Lake at dawn try
Common loons and horned grebes are back on the lake this week; the east-side boat ramp has the low sun behind you.
expires Nov 5
25 lb bag of bread flour buy
At two bakes a week the 5 lb bags cost about 40% more per loaf.
expires Nov 6
Ride before work on Tuesdays try
Your recovery runs about 8 points higher on days after an early ride than after an evening one.
expires Nov 7
Dinner with Nora in Glenwood South try
The new ramen place opened last week; Nora mentioned it twice.
expires Nov 9
Robin noticed these but hasn't committed to them. Are they true about you?
Sam prefers dark mode in every app
work · seen 6 times
Sam prefers to ride before 9am on weekends
fitness · seen 5 times
Sam wants the bike-log app to import rides automatically
work · seen 4 times
Sam avoids busy trails on Sunday afternoons
fitness · seen 4 times
Sam would rather take the bus than drive downtown
home · seen 4 times
Sam birds Lake Johnson with a local group on the first Saturday of the month
birding · seen 3 times
Its confidence matches how often it turns out right. Dots below the dashed line are bands where it was overconfident; bigger dots have more predictions behind them.
| Robin said | Came true | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 0% | 1 |
| 40–50% | 38% | 8 |
| 50–60% | 45% | 20 |
| 60–70% | 69% | 29 |
| 70–80% | 80% | 40 |
| 80–90% | 93% | 15 |
| 90–100% | 100% | 1 |
5% of resolved predictions (6 of 120) could not be checked against data, so they don't count toward the score.
As reported by the model SDK for each run; subscription runs may not be billed at this rate.